Analysis of Observed and Perceived Climate Change and Variability in Gondar Zuria Woreda, Northwestern Ethiopia

Abstract

Examining the spatiotemporal variability and trends of climate in the context of global climate changes particularly in countries like ours where rainfed agriculture is predominant is indispensable to suggest possible adaptation policies. Therefore, this study aimed at assessing the changes and variability of rainfall and temperature in Gonder Zuria Woreda, Northwestern Ethiopia. The study was conducted using quantitative research design. Climatic data which were collected from 1952 – 2016 were the data source of this study. Questionnaire was used to collect data from 100 local people about their perception on climate changes, and it was presented in frequency and percentage distributions. Coeffcient of variation, anomaly index, Precipitation Concentration Index and Seasonality Index were used to analyze the variability of rainfall on annual and seasonal basis whereas Inverse distance weighting interpolation was used to show the spatial variability of rainfall. Furthermore, both non- Mann-Kendall tests and linear regression were used to detect the trends in time-series climatic data for the period of 1952-2016. The result revealed that there is intra-annual/seasonal and inter-annual variability of rainfall. Annual, summer and spring rainfall has decreased with a rate of 21.24, 7.2 and 1.85 mm per decade respectively. The minimum average and maximum rate of change of temperature was found to be 0.19, 0.25 and 0.3oC per decade respectively. The Mann-Kendall trend test result indicated that there is signifcant increasing trend for minimum, average and maximum temperatures. Most of the respondents (80%), perceived that temperature is increasing and rainfall is declining. Therefore, a sustainable climate risk management approach is recommended to adapt to the ongoing impacts of climate variability and climate change.