Ethiopia’s Quest for Sea Access: Strategic Imperatives, Responses and Geopolitical Repercussions

Abstract

This paper examined the strategic imperative and geopolitical repercussions of Ethiopia’s pursuit of sea access, focusing on the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed with Somaliland and the subsequent Ankara Declaration with Somalia. The study used primary data collected from key informants and relevant secondary data from current discourses. Ethiopia’s maritime initiative, justified by demographic and economic growth, security concerns, and ambitions for regional leadership and integration, resulted in the signing of the MoU with Somaliland. This agreement has exacerbated geopolitical rivalries and led to the formation of three distinct camps: supporters, cautious observers, and adversaries. These rivalries intensified regional tensions, proxy politics, and the military presence of Egypt and Eritrea in Somalia. It also expanded Turkish influence and bolstered Ethiopia’s efforts to secure sea access, which led to the signing of the Ankara Declaration. The Ankara Declaration marks a shift in regional dynamics. It eases tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, acknowledges Ethiopia’s quest for sea access, reaffirms Somalia’s territorial integrity, and re-engages Ethiopia in Somali security issues. However, Somaliland and key opponents of the MoU, who have formed a de facto alliance with Somalia, remain resentful, which could lead to further geopolitical shifts. Therefore, the Ankara Declaration does not supersede the MoU but adjusts regional alignments within ongoing rivalries. The core issues driving these rivalries, Ethiopia’s quest for sea access and Somaliland’s pursuit of statehood, remain central to the changing regional geopolitical landscape.