Evaluating urban employment dynamics in selected secondary cities of Ethiopia: A shift-share analysis


  • engida esayas Dube


Urban Employment Dynamics, Secondary Cities, Shift-Share Analysis


Policymakers and municipal authorities need up to date information about industrial health in terms of employment changes, to make informed decisions. The purpose of this article is to analyze urban economic change focusing especially on the employment dynamics in selected secondary cities of Ethiopia for the period of 2014-2018, using shift share analysis. The data used for this study was drawn from the Urban Employment/Unemployment Survey of the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia. The study employed shift share decomposition as an analytical framework. The study has identified the locally and nationally growing; locally growing but nationally declining; locally declining but nationally growing; and locally and nationally declining industries in the study cities. The manufacturing sector appears to have a strong place in Bahir Dar, Hawassa, Dire Dawa, and Adama cities as shown in their employment growth because of the structural and differential effects. Five study cities are gaining employment in education; three in construction and two in wholesale and retail trade; and accommodation and food services. The analysis points to the sectors that are gaining or losing employment because of structural and/or competitive share effects. Thus, improving the infrastructure, and developing productive industries would help keep up the growth of industries in these cities.